Questions and Answers Submit a Question
Market InvestmentsReal-EstatePersonal FinanceEntrepreneurship
If you approach getting rich with the notion that there is some magic
formula, concept, or piece of information that is going to make it happen, you
need to ask your yourself this question – if that is so, then why isn't
everyone rich?
This book exemplifies the problem with the wealth industry today and why this
site was created. So many of the current "wealth gurus" sell books and
seminars on the idea that if they just read the book or go to the seminar, they
will find some magical insight that will make them rich with little work and no
risk. In fact, the phrase "cash machine" comes from wealth guru Loral
Langemeier. Most of these gurus are experts more on sales and motivational
techniques rather than finance and economics. They just don't tell you the truth
about what it really takes to get rich.
However, the question deserves an answer. If you really want to make a lot of
money, become a doctor. About the highest paid occupation in the United States
is that of cardiologist or neurosurgeon, with an annual salary of about $600,000
per year. That is, the highest paid occupation when the uncertainty of achieving
that occupation is considered. Other occupations, such as athlete, movie star,
or Fortune 500 CEO command higher salaries, but achieving those occupations
requires a certain amount of luck and very rare talent. While becoming a highly
skilled surgical specialist also requires talent, it is not so rare, and the
bigger requirement is the fortitude to commit to the training.
If that answer is not to your liking, then consider these alternatives:
A. You are already a cash machine in that you probably make more and have a
higher standard of living that most people in the world.
B. What it takes is risk. The relationship between risk and wealth is a
concept described in various articles on this site.
Market Investments
I don't think much of that technique. What do you if, before you reach your target, the company reports worse than expected earnings, or even fraudulent accounting? What if you get to that price target, and the company looks like an even more compelling buy than it was initially? For an investment with no transaction costs (the commissions, taxes, and accounting costs of buying and selling), you own the investment because, based on your available information, that is the best investment at that time for your desired return and level of risk. If the information changes, you switch the what is then the best investment at that time. You judge the quality of an investment by your estimated return on the investment and your estimated level of risk. A particular price target at some unknown date in the future is not a proper estimate of a company's risk and return.
That is for an investment with no transaction costs to buy or sell. Publicly traded stocks are the most liquid investment you can get, but this do have small transaction costs in the form of commissions, taxes, and the effort you take to track the purchases and sales. So own the best stocks at any point in time, but keep transaction costs in mind. Finally, if you find yourself switching in and out of stocks excessively (more than ninety days), you are probably not doing an effective analysis of the stock. Day trading doesn't work and information about most companies does not typically change that quickly.
By not investing in the stock
market. Understand this: There is no investment which cannot lose
value.
If you invest in the stock
market, stocks can go down. Any stock
can go to zero, if for no other reason than for the revelation of accounting
fraud.
There is only one investment that
is considered free of risk. That is
U.S. Treasury Bonds (or T-bills). When
you buy treasury bonds, you are loaning money to the U.S. government. When people talk of the U.S. government
debt, that is all money owed to owners of treasury bonds. While other countries, and even U.S. State
and local governments finance debt with bonds, U.S. Treasury bonds are
considered risk free because the U.S. Government is the most financial secure
in the world and it always repays its debt.
In theory, if a government could not pay the debt of the bonds, it could
just print more money, which causes inflation, which destroys the value of the
bond investment anyway.
Even cash is not risk free. With cash, there is always a risk of
inflation, or that the cash will be destroyed.
While a ten dollar bill is worth ten dollars no matter what the
inflation rate is, that ten dollars can lose value due to inflation.
So why invest in the stock market
at all? Because while there is risk,
there is always the potential of greater return. All other things being equal, any investment with greater risk
should have a greater potential return.
Over the long term, the stock market is definitely a better investment.
Real-Estate
For the financially disciplined investor, the numbers show that it is best to
invest money in the markets before paying off a home mortgage. But is it wise to
borrow against your home mortgage to get money to invest in the markets?
Borrowing against your home mortgage to invest in the markets is really the
same as deferring paying off the mortgage to invest in the markets. They are
just on different sides of the transaction. In the first instance, we already
made the house payment. We are simply borrowing that payment back from the
mortgage company so that we can invest it. The end result of both scenarios is
that we owe money on a home mortgage and we have money invested in the markets.
However, there are a few details to consider:
1. Borrowing against your home may have a higher interest rate than the
original mortgage. The difference may be enough that, when all other factors are
considered, it is not worth it.
2. One must resist the urge to spend the borrowed money. All of it must be
invested.
3. Even the most financial astute investors can get emotional about money.
While deferring payment on a mortgage to invest the money seems, reasonable, for
most investors, borrowing money against their home in order to invest it, just
doesn't feel right.
Whether to pay off the house or not is about managing risk. Even though the
numbers in the long term indicate that the house should not be paid off and
instead money should be invested, that doesn't make that the right decision for
every ones' risk profile. Making the right decision is about understanding the
details, controlling your spending, and being able to sleep at night. If
borrowing worries you too much, then it isn't worth the trouble - even when the
numbers show it to be the correct decision,
No. Nor should you have a deadline for any investment. An investment should be made because it is
the best investment for your financial goals at that particular time. Trying to predict what the best investment
is in the future would be like, well… predicting the future. If you say "I am going to buy
real-estate within the next six month," what does that get you. If you find the right real-estate investment
within six months, make the investment.
But if you didn't, does that mean you should make the wrong investment
in six months just because that is your deadline?
You start with any investment
when you understand the investment sufficiently to know that it is the best
investment available from available alternatives for the financial goals you
are trying to achieve. How do you know
when that is?
First, lets separate out the
real-estate that you live in from the real-estate investments that are made
purely for financial gains. You invest
in real-estate to live in when you are ready to buy a house to live in – simple
enough, right? When most people buy a
house to live in, they think of their lifestyle first and the investment value
second. This makes sense as you are
going to live in the house every day, but the investment value matters only
when you sell it. Now for real-estate as an
investment. You need to understand why
you are choosing real-estate over other investments that are available to
you. Because it is the thing everyone
is doing, or because you saw it on TV, or even because you like browsing home
improvements stores and picking out plumbing and tile, doesn't mean that it is
the time to invest. The time to invest
is when you think you can do it better than everyone else out there. To paraphrase an old saying, if you don't
know who the sucker is in a real-estate deal, you're it.
Personal Finance
It is a myth that renting is
automatically a bad financial decision for housing. Remember that a home – whether bought or rented is primarily a
place to live. Once you ask this
question, you are now thinking of your home as an investment, and therefore the
question must be answered in comparison to other financial investments you
could make. In other words, if you didn't
buy your house, what other investments are available and are they better or
worse for you than buying your house.
Renting has two distinct
advantages. First, renting is a shorter
time commitment than buying a house. If
you expect to be moving within a year or two, (some financial experts would
even say five years) then renting may be a wise alternative. If you consider your home to be an
investment, then you have to think of it as being illiquid – that is it can not
be sold quickly or easily, although this depends on market conditions – and you
may have to take a steep discount to sell your house quickly. At the time of writing in August 2007, there
is a lot of that going on.
The second advantage involves
cash flow. Generally, renting
(particularly when renting an apartment vs. buying a house or condominium)
requires less cash flow. Rent is
cheaper than a mortgage payment.
Furnishings, utilities, taxes, and insurance can all be cheaper as
well. If you have a job which provides
uncertain income (which you may have if you are trying to get rich), then
renting may be the better alternative.
So if you rent and have lower
living expenses, you can invest the extra cash in other investments such as the
stock market. When deciding what to do,
you will want to compare a potential house as an investment to other potential
investments.
Understand that many other people
will be in the same situation. So it
may look that way now, but just like any business, colleges and universities
can not price themselves out of the market, especially if all they are offering
is a liberal arts degree of questionable value. I am sure that when I went to college, my parents thought it was
outrageously expensive, but I still got by as a poor student delivering pizzas
or working part time just like everyone else.
Saving for a child's college
tuition is the same as saving for anything else. It takes knowledge of investment opportunities and financial
discipline. Generally, your time
horizon is going to be long so general stock market investments, such as a
broad market mutual fund, or even something riskier such as a technology fund,
provide appropriate risk and return.
But nothing riskier. Saving for
college isn't like saving for retirement.
Losing your retirement money in bad investments is a serious
problem. Losing college fund money in
bad investments isn't the end of the world and won't preclude your child from
getting a good education.
Some states may have various tax
incentives or savings plans for a child's education. Take advantage of them if you wish, but watch out for plans that
lock you into a particular school.
There isn't necessarily anything wrong with that, but just be aware of
the restrictions. Also, watch out for
tax savings. Any tax benefit can be
repealed at any time in the future and government has a tendency to not let
people get away with tax breaks for very long.
Finally, make sure you understand what happens to the money if your
child does not go to college.
When the time comes to picking
schools and majors, explain to your child that this education is an investment
in their future. Guide your child to
majors and schools that will provide them with a career potential worthy of the
investment. If they want to study
philosophy, explain that they can do so in their spare time once they get a
good job.
Entrepreneurship
In this question, replace the
work entrepreneur with any other occupation – actor, salesman, surgeon, lawyer,
or even wealth guru. Are people born or
made for any occupation? Certainly, some
people are born with talents that enable them to succeed n particular occupations. On top of that, training can enhance those
skill sets. Some people are born
entrepreneurs. They know that it is
what they want to do. Some of those
people are successful at it, and some persist in spite of failure because they
can't stand the alternative – that is working for someone else. However, just as with any occupation, anyone
can be trained in business and entrepreneurship. Some will take to the training and some will not.
Although there are many
successful entrepreneurs who lack formal business training (Bill Gates for
one), I recommend it if the option is available. You are only going to get a few chances at success in the high
stakes world of entrepreneurship, mistakes can cost you big – more than the
cost of a college education. If formal
business training is not an option, then books, books, and more books – and of
course this web site!
I have said that making a living
as an entrepreneur is like making a living as a rock star. You don't do it for the money, you do it for
the lifestyle, and if you get rich in the process, so much the better. People become entrepreneurs because that is
what they want. If you wanted it, you
wouldn’t ask the question. Most people
prefer the steady security and consistent income of a job of limited
responsibilities. Only you know if you
prefers the highs and lows that come with the life as an entrepreneur. You may also decide that it is right for one
time in your life but not another. The
best entrepreneurs make the worst parents.
Besides the passion, there are a
two more things you will need.
First, you need an idea. Most entrepreneurs I know continuously have
multiple ideas flowing through their heads – and some are even viable as
businesses! What separates successful
entrepreneurs from failures is knowing which idea to pick. Entrepreneurs have a reputation for
operating on instinct rather than analysis, but after a few failures, you may
decide that analysis isn't so bad.
Every new business has an element of risk, but do your homework, or even
write a business plan to avoid an impetuous, life-changing mistake.
Second, you need a sufficient
education in business. That may or may
not mean business school (although I recommend it). But you probably get only one or two shots at success. Don't let lack of some simple piece of
knowledge cost you the opportunity of a lifetime.
The problem is that you are
comparing your incomes from the job and the business at their current point in
time. The most important rule of
finance is that the value of an investment is the present value of future cash
flows discounted at a rate of return appropriate for the risk of those cash
flows occurring. What that means is
both your job and your business will generate cash for you in the future at
different levels of risk. Your job pays
more now and is steady. While your
business pays less today, it has the potential to pay much more in the
future. You need to estimate the
present value of those cash flows, and then compare to determine which is
best. In finance, this is called an net
present value (NPV) calculation.
OK, so the math is complicated
and your estimates of what the business will make will be wrong – that is the
problem with NPV. But here is the
bigger point. All of business is making
decisions about the best option for today versus the best option for the
future. If you can't get past this
first decision, stay with the job.
Running a business, the decisions only get more difficult.
First, you need to prepare for
the owning the business. There are
certain things you need to do whether you are currently an employee or even
just a college student or a bum on the street.
You need an idea. You need to
know what kind of business it is going to be.
You need to do an analysis to convince yourself and potential investors
that the business will be profitable.
Basically, you are going to have to write a business plan. That is something that you can do in your
spare time.
Second, if there are going to be
partners, you need to put together the partnership agreements and understand
how the partnership is going to work.
Even if you are on your own, this is the time to form a corporation and
set up the bank accounts.
You may also need money to live
on. There are basically two situations
that can happen when someone leaves employment to start a business. They could have potential customers and
contracts already lined up to start generating revenue right away. This often happens if your current
employment leads to the new business or takes you to your first customers. Alternatively, you may have to survive for
awhile with no income while the business picks up steam. In this case, you will need substantial
savings.
Finally, when everything is in
place, you are ready to jump ship. No
matter how much you may be tempted, don't storm out of your current job with
bridges flaming behind you. If the
business doesn't work out – and statistically it won't – you may find your job
title changing from President to supplicant.
|
|